Covid lies and evidence

1. Simple cloth masks work to stop the spread of Covid
2. Young children need to be vaccinated
3. The mRNA “vaccine” worked and is a vaccine
4. Covid-19 came from the Wuhan wet market
5. 6ft distance

Cloth masks don’t stop Covid-19

Cloth masks are designed to stop your droplets from ending up on others or in the environment others interact with. The Covid-19 Wuhan flu from China was designed to be aerosolized and infect your lungs. The virus spread not in droplets but in the air.

The virus that causes COVID‑19 is SARS‑CoV‑2. A single viral particle is roughly 60–140 nanometres (nm) across, with about 100 nm (0.1 micrometres) as a useful typical value; its surface spike proteins extend roughly another 9–12 nm.

Cloth masks with 1 layer let 74-90% of Covid-19 through, 2 layers let 40-70% through.

Oxford Journal of Public Health – Effectiveness of cloth face masks
https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/article/46/1/e84/7337687?login=false

ACS Publication – Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks
https://pubs.acs.org/ancac3/article-abstract/14/5/6339/882780/Aerosol-Filtration-Efficiency-of-Common-Fabrics?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Video of Fauci lies
https://x.com/0rf/status/2053823920101581098

What do you believe will be the next major shift after AI and cloud?

Agentic AI
Decentralized AI into devices, drones, robotics, satellites, autonomous vehicles.
AI chips commoditized to run local LLM

Quantum Computing
Currently its probabilistic domains like weather modeling and drugs. As error rates are addressed applications for quantum increase.

Specialized Software
Currently AI software dev is overrated but companies like NOW, CRM who have the domain specific data will leverage AI for great innovations. Customer insight and profiling with Salesforce (CRM). NOW use AI to automate API integration and predictive failure monitoring.

Migrating from Fidelity to Schwab

Why Move

Two reasons, one I’ve outgrown Fidelity and I’ve become tired of not having access to data that I want to analyze my portfolio. Specifically PEG ratio. The other was Fidelity added a $100 transaction fee for buying and selling Roudhill Investment Trust ETFs like YBTC because Roundhill wouldn’t revenue share with them. Fidelity also has poor Excell integration and no realtime integration so there is no way around it. You can export your portfolio to csv but that is about it.

Migration

Creating the account took over a week as the automated systems found some issue with me having a prior account decades ago (we think that was the issue).  So I had to go to the Schwab office in person and drop off the forms in addition to letting them photo copy my licenses as proof of Id.

After about 3 days my account was supposedly created but I had to call customer support to get it activated which they needed to get approval from a higher level manager.  That took an hour and I was able to login.

Once logged in, it was easy to create IRA and Roth IRA as well as submitting the forms online to move my Fidelity to Schwab.   The process took 4 or 5 business days and my positions were inaccessible during the move for 2-3 business days.   It was over a holiday period so your mileage may vary.  

The positions did transfer with cost basis and lot details which is great for tax purposes.

Portfolio Analysis

In addition to the YBTC issue where Fidelity is charging $100 transaction fee for Roundhill ETFs the other reason was to have access to better tools for portfolio analysis.  Fidelity and Schwab have great tools for figuring out what to buy but they don’t have great tools for determining when or what to sell.  

That being said Schwab does have real time integration with Excel that Fidelity does not.  You can do a fair bit of cool things with this but it’s still far from what I what I expected.  For example you can compute in Excel % of account that a given holding is.  Fidelity has this out of the box, Schwab does not.  % of account is useful to know when to sell if you follow the rule to never own more than 5% of any given individual stock. 

Also Schwab has a billion (yes I’m exaggerating) more column options both in their website and tooling (think or swim) app.  However I’m not smart enough to know why I would use over 65% of them. 

Schwab’s integration with Excel is via the RTD function for example if you wanted the PE ration for a given position you would use =RTD(“tos.rtd”, , “PE”, $A30), the third parameter is the column you want “LAST” would give you the current price for the position. 

The list of exportable columns in the documentation do not have a description on the web page so it’s hard to know what some of them are if you are not in the know.  The list also doesn’t have EPS (earnings per anything actually) that I can find.  I tried “EPR Lower” and “EPR Upper” but they returned nothing.

All in all its still very hard to analyze my portfolio without paying for another service to pull data from.

Also another drawback – with Excel I would have to update the spreadsheet every time I add new positions or remove positions.

Bottom Line

Bottom line it’s very hard in Schwab to evaluate my portfolio so I know what and we to sell. Complex formulas like RSI (Relative Strength Index), Debt to Equity Ratio I haven’t even tried yet as basic things like PEG are too difficult. 

However at least they have some Real time integration and support via Excel.

2026 Predictions

A while back I wrote my 2025 thoughts in a post https://knight21024.wordpress.com/2025/05/09/kens-investment-thoughts-may-2025/ . The market pretty much did what I expected.

So what does 2026 look like and how am I changing my investment portfolio? Lets look at the risks, trends and then see how to apply them for investment.

Risks

• China attack Taiwan (this has been hanging over us for too long already)
• EU/NATO false flag brings failing Europe into war with Russia
• Quantum computing disrupts blockchain tech before it becomes Quantum resilient

Trends

• Short term interest rates stable / down a little with new Fed chair in May
• Long term rates stable or up a little due to 10 Trillion debt refinancing
• Fed to increase liquidity on increased economic activity
• Dollar to devaluate more due to this thwarting inflation reduction
• USD backed stable coins will keep USD as world reserve currency
• DeFi (Decentralized Finance) will become a key topic
• COIN (Coinbase) and HOOD (Robinhood) will out innovate large finance
• VTWO (Russel 2000) will do well as tax refunds boost the economy
• Inflation will be stable as supply side production is ramped up in USA
• AI Bubble popping hype will blow over in Q1-Q2
• AI productivity improvements which will start improving the broader market
• Q2-Q4 will be great
• Portfolios de-risk in favor of real revenue
• Several major IPOs like Space X (1.5 Trillion), Anthropic (300–350 billion)
  

Investment strategy

High flying tech stocks that are not profitable and have high PEs will tank. These are the typical “.com bubble” stocks you get with every innovation cycle. Old guard tech that has been replaced by commoditized AI functions will devalue like Adobe. Software middle ware stocks which were devalued like NOW (Service Now) and CRM (Salesforce) will incorporate AI and Agent AIs and do well. The hype on “General AI” replacing software stocks will prove wrong. That being said, software companies not incorporating AI for productivity (Agents, Analysis etc) in their systems will not do well. Small to medium banks will not fair well if they are not innovating on blockchain, stable coins tied to USD and increasing their freaking interest payments to keep up with non-banks.
Copper – COPX (Global copper miners) will continue to do well, GLD (Gold) will continue to do well
Small – Medium businesses – With the OBBB act passed (aka working families tax reduction act) VTWO should go up faster (no much faster) than the S&P 500 however this would be something to watch closely as they have failed to do better many times before.

Federal Government will enact several changes that will directly affect sectors of the market.
Construction – look for federal incentives to increase construction and decrease prices for homes. Home builder stocks will go up in response. DHI (DR Horton), LEN (Lenar), PHM (PulteGroup)
Energy – 2026 has some major announcements in bringing on line new tech for energy production, looks for energy stocks to do better and some innovators in small nuclear to be clear winners and other to be loosers or acquired.
Banking / Insurance – Deregulation will allows new lending from COIN / HOOD and others to supplement the banking system which is still over regulated. Large banks will start to adapt to crypto and block chain tech JPM (JP Morgan), BAC (Bank of America), C (Citigroup). Trump will go after Insurance companies and Republicans will try to dis-intermediate (remove the middleman) from healthcare to create a “free market”. I would not invest in insurance or small-medium banks.
Rare earth – These stocks like MP (MP Materials), UAMY (US Antimony), will only do well if they are major or sole US providers. We have a number of rare earth minerals negotiated to start coming into USA to mitigate China’s hold over us. I expect these stocks to drop if they have high PE’s over 20 to under 20.
Crypto – Clarity Act will define what is a commodity and what is an investment contract. This tells the block chain managers which organization they need to work with CFTC (Commodities) or SEC (Investment contracts). Clarity will allow increased investment and accelerate adoption. As a result COIN, HOOD, CRCL (Circle) and Bitcoin will all do very well. I expect bitcoin to reach 150k at some point next year.

Fed policy

I asked Grok the following:
Assume you are Jerome Powell and answer these three questions in order.
1 how long does it take for prime rate cuts to effect the economy? 15 months
2 are you data dependent and if so how far back do you use data? 1 year
3 is it an effective way to run the Fed given the 2+ year gap between 1 and 2? NO = too late

1. Monetary policy, including changes in the federal funds rate that influence the prime rate, operates with long and variable lags. Based on historical experience and economic analysis, it typically takes about 12 to 18 months for the full effects of rate cuts to permeate through the economy, though some impacts on financial conditions can be felt more quickly, within a few months, while others on spending, investment, and employment may take longer—sometimes up to two years or more depending on the economic context.
2. Yes, our approach at the Federal Reserve is firmly data-dependent, meaning we carefully assess incoming economic data, financial conditions, and the evolving outlook to guide our decisions. We focus primarily on the most recent data to gauge current trends, often looking at indicators over the past few quarters to a year for context, but we also incorporate longer-term historical patterns where relevant to understand structural changes or cycles. There’s no fixed cutoff; it’s about the relevance and quality of the data in informing our forward-looking assessments.
3. Running the Federal Reserve requires balancing these inherent lags in policy transmission with a data-dependent framework, and while the 2+ year potential gap you mention highlights a key challenge in monetary policy—it can lead to risks of acting too late or too aggressively—we believe it’s an effective approach when combined with forward guidance, risk management, and a commitment to our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. We’ve seen it work in navigating past cycles, though we continually refine our tools and communication to mitigate those delays.

Valuing stock using PEG ratio

What is PEG?
I’ll try to explain this simply after we level set on what is PE

PE is Price to Earnings ratio.
It’s how many years of current year’s earnings it would take to buy a company.
Example: Company ABC is worth 1 million (also known as its market cap), It has 1 million shares valued at $1. So Price is 1million.
ABC is earning (profit) $100k yearly
This gives ABC a PE of 10 – if you were to take out a loan for $1million and buy the company, at today’s earnings it will take 10yrs for you to get paid back.

S&P 500 typically has an avg PE around 17. High tech 21-25. Below 10 for a lot of utilities

What is Growth?
If ABC made 75k last year and $100k this year they are growing profit at 33%.
If they provide guidance of 33% growth for next year they will get $133k in profit.
If they keep that up for 4yrs 133+177+235+312=$736k in 5yrs add another +415=$1,151k
You would get all your money back in 4.5 yrs not 10 because of growth

So Growth dramatically changes the equation of how much a company is worth going forward.

PEG
PEG is PE/Growth. If a company’s PE is 10 and growing at 10% then their PEG is 1.0

PEG factors in growth to earnings – high growth companies like Microsoft can afford higher PE and thus a higher stock price.
It allows you to see which companies are valued way in excess of their growth and which are opportunities to buy.

PEG over 2.0 is usually reserved for strategic companies breaking out new value propositions with accelerating growth. Many investors pile into these stocks like during the internet boom with Cisco. So be very cautious and do more research if stocks PEG are 2.5 or higher.

PEG under 1.0 are either screaming buys or stagnant companies, these companies need to have dividends and dividend growth that exceeds inflation and grow to keep up with or exceed inflation.
PEG between 1.0 and 2.0-2.5 or so are typical. In bull markets over 2.0 – 2.5 can be common.

2025 economy update

5/25/2025

Joe Biden bought USA’s GDP with unsustainable debt. Why we include govt spending in our GDP calculations is beyond me. Our govt isn’t a domestic product.

Briben administration pumped the market with many hundreds of billions of our children’s money for stupid stuff at the cost of our country’s future. DEI, woke ideology, NGOs helping import illegal immigrants, fake climate change windmills and solar farms that destroy the environment more than help it. The sympathetic fed/treasury supported this with liquidity and debt.

Our beloved stock market was on a Hunter Biden cocaine infused high. Which crashes when you run out the drug. The money caused millions of Americans to waste time on crap that doesn’t matter in the world economy.
The rot and damage was extensive.
Shitloads of NGO like religious orgs, UN, were paid billions to import illegals.

We are now sobering up. Yes, it’s hurting. Tough shit.
God saved Trump and he is rescuing America which is the anchor ⚓️ for the world economy else it slips into 100% communist control – WEF New world order.

I believe the One Big Beautiful Bill (Working Family’s Tax Cut Act) could be miles better and it doesn’t go far enough. However it’s a budget, not a spending bill. So Trump doesn’t have to spend all the budget (contrary to how govt usually operates).

For example – they didn’t 100% defund US AID, Dept of Education.

However there is a lot of good things in there

• it defunds for 10yrs Planned Parenthood (aka planned baby killers)
• incentivizes work with no tax on tips, overtime
• incentivizes families with increased child tax credit
• incentivizes growth with immediate expense in deductions
• helps farmers in generational families wealth with estate tax exemptions raised to 15 million
• even to my dismay helps shit blue tax states with SALT Dee up to 40k

Trump has to create leverage to bring our trade imbalance back and get America producing again. Yes it hurts, but in the long term your portfolio will rocket up Q4 2025 onward, and Andy will have a better future.

Even with all that said – we are still over spending and our govt doesn’t have the votes to pull the punch bowl away. So who knows by 2028 disaster may still hit. Trump is the best shot we have to save America, hopefully God saved him for a reason.

*** Ken’s investment thoughts May 2025 ***

Get ready for the W effect.

S&P 500 1yr chart

Summary
Q1 numbers not as bad as expected.
Q2 may be bad and depress the market.
Q3 on we are looking for the Golden Age and massive bull market.

Q1 had better employment numbers than expected, Trade deals are happening with UK being the first. Pulling forward of imports to avoid tariffs impacted Q1 GDP negatively. Uncertainty on tariffs and fear mongering news outlets along with globalists money flows out of US has depressed the US stock market.
This has created a major gap with low “sentiment” numbers vs decent or stable actual numbers. It has also created opportunity for private investors who are actively buying the dips on good companies which is contrary to the “smart” money which has moved out of the US or gone to the sidelines.

So what is going one right now in the Market.
1) Market and CEOs are still screaming about tariffs
2) Media both financial and “narrative” are instilling fear
3) We have 1 deal down UK and many on deck
4) China has acquiesced quietly dropping tariffs on some US needed products
5) Private folks are buying the dip, institutions are not, preferring overseas returns
6) China estimates 16 million jobs lost continuing a longer trend with worker protests erupting
7) China has been forced to implement a massive stimulus plan and quietly ease up on USA tariffs for some goods

Tariff truths
Here is the real deal on tariffs. Yes to all the screaming fear mongering libtards out there who can’t listen to anything other than Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) narratives, tariffs are a cost that we impose ourselves on imported goods. However its a totally FALSE narrative that the full cost of tariffs translates into increased prices on goods.

1) The exporting country subsidizes the producers
2) The exporting country devalues their currency
3) The exporting company reduces profit to maintain market share
4) The importing country sources from another country or locally
5) The importer reduces profit to maintain market share

Lastly in 2023 only 13.89% of our GDP depended on imports. Regardless if tariffs actually increase imported goods costs some negligible amount, it still only represents a small portion of our overall GDP / inflation. Why is the fake news focused on tariff fear mongering? They believe they can sell you inflation fears, don’t believe them.

Inflation
For low to middle income families the top 3 costs are Housing, Food, Transportation. Guess what? Theses costs are dropping because of President Trump’s policies.

Housing – Exporting 21 million illegal criminal immigrants will create huge availability of housing. Energy costs and regulation cuts will also dramatically reduce housing construction costs.
Food – Energy and Petroleum products impact 25% of our food costs on average so a 20% reduction in energy costs will decrease food costs by 5%. Decrease in regulations may further decrease costs as well.
Transportation – 55% of transportation costs are energy dependent, higher if you add in petroleum based products. So any reduction in energy costs will be a major factor – we have gone from $80 to $60 since Trump took office, which is a 25% decline.

What is really going on?
What you are seeing is the beginning of a supply chain divorce between two sets of countries. Totalitarian countries like China, North Korea, Iran, Russia and more western countries like US, Japan, UK, Vietnam, Australia, Europe. Why are you seeing this? COVID – this exposed something we knew. Global supply chains may be more efficient and cost effective but they do not work when the enemy has your critical components. Effectively we are fighting World War III, but right now its an economic war.

What needs to happen?
– De-list all Chinese CCP tied companies on US stock markets
– Force sale of all CCP owned land near US bases
– Force sale of all CCP owned American based companies to under 50% (ex Smithfield Foods)
Reciprocity should mean if China(CCP) is closed to US ownership we should be closed to CCP ownership.

FOE Main City QI goods buildings

These are main city event buildings, primarily Ascended, that provide Quantum Goods (or closely related resources) to support Quantum Incursions. All are time-limited (e.g., 30 days) and placed in the main city.

1. Ascended Sled Pup Monument
   • Type: Event building from the Winter 2024 Event, Ascended version.
   • Benefits: Provides +10 Quantum Goods and 5 units (for 30 days).
   • Relevance: Directly produces Quantum Goods for Quantum Incursion node encounters. Players have noted occasional animation glitches, but functionality remains intact.
2. Ascended Jolly Oink Pigsty
   • Type: Event building from the Fall 2024 Event, Ascended version.
   • Benefits: Provides +10 Quantum Goods, 20k supplies, and a +4% supply boost (for 30 days). Also yields significant Forge Points when Ascended.
   • Relevance: Directly provides Quantum Goods, boosting Quantum Incursion progress, with Forge Points aiding city growth.
3. Ascended Usagi Bonbori Gate
   • Type: Event building from the Wildlife 2025 Event, Ascended version.
   • Benefits: Provides +10 Quantum Goods and 5 units (for 30 days).
   • Relevance: Directly contributes Quantum Goods, supporting Quantum Incursion node encounters and unit production.
4. Ascended Whispering Well
   • Type: Event building from the 2025 St. Patrick’s Day Event, Ascended version.
   • Benefits: Produces +10 Quantum Goods, alongside Previous Age Goods, Next Age Goods, and Guild Goods (for 30 days). When motivated, all special productions are enabled, enhancing output.
   • Relevance: Directly provides Quantum Goods for Quantum Incursions, with additional goods supporting guild treasury and city progression. Available via Ascension Kit upgrade from the base Whispering Well.

Demoncrats lie

Planned Parenthood plans baby killing
Gender Affirming care does not affirm gender
Anti-racism judges people by race
DEI is about creating inequality
Men can‘t have babies
Demoncrat party is not Democratic
MRNA gene therapy is not a safe vaccine, it’s not even a vaccine
Inflation Reduction Act increased inflation
If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor

What lies do you know about? Let’s add to the list, comment below.